How the Strait
became a fault line.

11 selected turning points · Dates can overlap where historical processes overlap.

1. 1683–1895

   A longer history than the civil war

   Qing rule began in 1683. Its reach varied across the island, where Indigenous communities had long lived. In 1895, after defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing ceded Taiwan and Penghu to Japan.^{[1] [2]}

   Why it still matters

   Starting the story in 1949 leaves out Indigenous histories, imperial expansion, and fifty years of Japanese colonial rule. These experiences form part of Taiwan’s distinct historical setting.

2. 1945–1949

   Japanese rule ends. Two governments emerge.

   The Republic of China (ROC) began administering Taiwan after Japan’s 1945 surrender. In 1949, Communist victory on the mainland led to the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The ROC government retreated to Taiwan.^{[3] [5] [7]}

   Why it still matters

   The PRC and ROC are different governments. Beijing’s claim to Taiwan should not be confused with governing it: the PRC has never administered Taiwan. The ROC’s arrival also did not bring democracy; repression followed.

3. 1947–1987

   Repression becomes part of the political memory

   The February 28 Incident in 1947 was followed by violent state repression. Martial law began in Taiwan in 1949. Under Kuomintang (KMT) rule, the White Terror brought political imprisonment and executions.^[3]

   Why it still matters

   Taiwan’s later democracy grew out of an authoritarian past. Accounts focused only on Beijing and Washington miss the experiences of people who challenged the government on Taiwan itself.

4. 1954–1958

   The Strait becomes a Cold War flashpoint

   The PRC shelled ROC-held offshore islands during crises in 1954–55 and 1958. The United States supported the ROC. Islands close to the mainland, including Kinmen and Matsu, became central to the confrontation.^[5]

   Why it still matters

   A crisis can begin around an outlying island rather than with an invasion of Taiwan’s main island. Geography, military commitments, and uncertainty about intervention all shaped the danger.

5. 1971

   China’s seat at the UN changes hands

   UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 recognized the PRC government’s representatives as China’s representatives at the United Nations and removed Chiang Kai-shek’s representatives. The resolution’s text does not mention Taiwan.^{[6] [17] [18]}

   Why it still matters

   Representation at an international organization and control over territory are different questions. Beijing and Taipei draw sharply different conclusions about what this resolution means for Taiwan.

6. 1972–1979

   Washington changes its diplomatic relationship

   Nixon’s 1972 visit opened a path toward U.S.–PRC relations. In 1979, Washington recognized the PRC government as the sole legal government of China, ended diplomatic relations with the ROC, and retained unofficial ties with Taiwan.^{[7] [8] [9]}

   Why it still matters

   The Taiwan Relations Act created a framework for those unofficial ties and support for Taiwan’s self-defense. Diplomatic recognition changed, but U.S. involvement in Taiwan’s security continued.

7. 1987

   Martial law ends; reform continues

   Martial law was lifted in Taiwan and Penghu in July 1987. Restrictions on political life eased, followed by further constitutional and electoral reforms. Democracy developed through a process rather than one decisive announcement.^{[10] [11]}

   Why it still matters

   The island’s political future increasingly became a question for voters. This added a source of political authority that could not be reduced to the civil war claims of the two governments.

8. 1996

   Voters choose a president directly

   Taiwan held its first direct presidential election in March 1996, electing Lee Teng-hui. The vote took place amid PRC missile tests and military pressure, with the United States sending naval forces to the region.^{[11] [12]}

   Why it still matters

   The election tied the presidency directly to voters while exposing the tension between Taiwan’s democratic choices and Beijing’s claims. An election could be both a domestic event and an international crisis.

9. 2000

   The ruling party loses the presidency

   Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency. The transfer from the KMT to the DPP was Taiwan’s first peaceful transfer of presidential power between political parties.^{[12] [14]}

   Why it still matters

   Competitive elections matter because governments can be replaced. Taiwan’s leadership and policies now had to be understood through party competition and public consent as well as international pressure.

10. 2005

    Beijing writes its conditions for force into law

    The PRC adopted the Anti-Secession Law. Article 8 provides for non-peaceful means under specified conditions, including what Beijing considers Taiwan’s secession or the exhaustion of possibilities for peaceful unification.^[13]

    Why it still matters

    This is a statement of Beijing’s law and policy, not a neutral settlement of Taiwan’s status. Its conditions are central to understanding how Chinese leaders describe their red lines.

11. 1996–2024

    Direct elections become an institution

    Taiwan held eight direct presidential elections from 1996 through 2024. The historical story is therefore also one of repeated public choice, not only military crises and diplomatic negotiations.^[14]

    Why it still matters

    A useful account of the Strait must keep Taiwan’s electorate in view. Foreign governments influence the island’s security, but they do not substitute for the preferences of its people.